Estimating Activity Time
Reasons
Estimating activity time is a challenge in every project. The main reason activity duration estimation is challenging is because of the skills and knowledge it requires. Several occurrences may affect the duration an activity will take to be accomplished. Such factors include the nature of the activity and the type of resources and skills it may require. Some activities may be simple, while others may be complex. For simple activities, duration estimation may not be too difficult because the process can be traced and understood than if the activity is complex. Further, some activities may require resources that may not be easily accessed. For instance, an activity may require high skills that the present human resource cannot provide. As such, some activities may be outsourced, or new employees may be needed to provide the skills. For such projects, estimating the duration will be difficult and lack precision. Another reason why estimating activity duration is that the future is uncertain. In estimation, there is no formula that incorporates the uncertainty of the future, which may expose an activity to unnecessary delays. When estimating activity duration, it is important to consider things that might cause the activity to delay and adjust for that uncertainty. Even if an approach is designed, incorporating the delay, the estimation will face accuracy concerns. As a result, many projects’ duration is not estimated (Chakrabortty et al., 2017).
Factors
A good estimate of activity duration is important because it aids in planning. If a project manager can estimate the time it will take an activity within a project to be accomplished, and project duration can also be estimated. However, several factors need to be considered to ensure that a good estimate of the activity duration is obtained. Such factors may include the scope of the activity, resources assigned, and historical data.
The first factor to consider is the person estimating the duration. Project duration estimation requires an individual with adequate knowledge and skills in the activity. If a person with less knowledge about the activity is entrusted with duration estimation, the obtained value may be inaccurate and unreliable.
Another important factor to consider is resource availability. In most cases, each activity is assigned a given quantity of resources that can take it for a specific duration before depleted. When estimating the project duration, an individual should ensure that the resources assigned can cover that duration without becoming inadequate. Historical data is another important consideration in duration estimation. Some historical data can be helpful in estimating the duration the project will take. For instance, historical data for a similar project can be reviewed to predict the current activity.
Another crucial factor to consider is the scope of work (Ballesteros-Pérez, 2017). Even if historical data is used in estimation, the projects might be different in terms of what is covered. An activity may be complicated, having a broad scope because it entails doing many simple tasks. In such cases, the activity is expected to consume a longer period. However, if the activity is narrow and entails completing simpler tasks, a shorter duration may be sufficient. Within the scope, the nature of the activity also determines the duration it will take. Some activities are complex and may require longer duration to accomplish. On the other hand, other activities are simple and can be accomplished within a short time.
References
Ballesteros-Pérez, P. (2017). M-PERT: Manual project-duration estimation technique for teaching scheduling basics. Journal of construction engineering and management, 143(9), 04017063.
Chakrabortty, R. K., Sarker, R. A., & Essam, D. L. (2017). Resource constrained project scheduling with uncertain activity durations. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 112, 537-550.
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